National Health Expenditure Projections, 2023–32: Payer Trends Diverge As Pandemic-Related Policies Fade

Health care spending is projected to grow faster than the economy over the next decade, with its share of the gross domestic product (GDP) expected to rise from 17.3% in 2022 to 19.7% by 2032, or $7.7 trillion. In 2023, national health expenditures likely increased by 7.5%, driven by a surge in health care utilization and high insurance coverage, with an estimated 93.1% of the population insured. By 2024, Medicaid enrollment is anticipated to decline due to states' eligibility redeterminations, while enrollment in private insurance is expected to rise. From 2027 to 2032, increased health care service use and price inflation are projected to continue driving health spending growth beyond the overall economic pace.